Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

424
FXUS63 KDDC 021046
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
546 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms this evening, some
  severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Much cooler air will arrive Tuesday, with high chances
  (60-70%) for rain in the morning in places like Scott City,
  Dighton and Hays.

- There are moderate to high chances (60-70%) for non-severe
  showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A very active weather pattern will continue over the next
several days with several rounds of rain and thunderstorms
expected.

A weak shortwave trough will approach the high plains today. A
strong system will pass across the northern plains, pushing a
cold front through Kansas Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front
this evening, thunderstorms will form on the high plains and
move into western Kansas around Syracuse and Elkhart by 6 pm,
and then across southwest Kansas between 6 pm and 10 pm. 0-6 km
bulk shear will be marginal at best for supercell storm mode.
Given the large CAPE values and high moisture content, storms
will tend to form cold pools, with resultant lines of storms.
Large hail is possible initially, but damaging winds and small
hail will be the main concern later in the evening after storms
form a line.


The upper level trough will pass across western Kansas Tuesday
morning, along with a deep frontal convergence line. Showers and
non-severe t-storms will develop across far western Kansas in
the morning and move eastward to Ness City and Hays later in the
morning. There are smaller chances for rain father south near
the KS/OK line. Ensemble means of the ENS and GEPS indicate 60%
chances for over .25" of rain along the I-70 corridor from Hays
to WaKeeney. Much cooler air will move into southwest Kansas in
the morning, with afternoon readings in the upper 50s. North
winds at 20-35 mph will make it feel cooler.

Another shortwave trough will approach the southern high plains
late Wednesday. The lower levels over southwest Kansas will be
stably stratified; but return flow and elevated heating along
the edge of the Rockies will lead to t-storm initiation in the
afternoon. Low to mid level warm advection with a weak low level
jet should be enough to keep these storms propagating eastward
in a weakened state in the evening and overnight given the
westerly steering flow. Yet another round of thunderstorms is
likely Thursday evening as another weak upper level disturbance
arrives. Instability may be higher so that severe storms are
possible, especially along the Oklahoma state line from Liberal
to Elkhart. For the Wednesday evening through Thursday evening
time frame, areal coverage of rain could be quite high, with
60-70% chances for substantial rainfall of over .5" across most
of central and southwest Kansas per grand ensemble.

The active weather pattern may persist into Friday and possible
Saturday and Sunday as well as a northern stream upper level
trough pushes a low level baroclinic zone into the southern
plains, with ample low level moisture in place. However,
confidence is low by this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025


Strong south winds will develop today ahead of an upper level
disturbance. MVFR CIGS are possible this morning as moisture
surges north; but this should clear by early afternoon with
heating. A line of storms will likely affect KDDC/KGCK and KLBL
between 23 and 03z. Opted to introduce Prob30 -TSRA until
confidence increases on timing. A strong cold front will pass
just after the period, with north winds at 25 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch