Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

517
FXUS63 KDDC 242216
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
516 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs reaching
  the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Slightly warmer temperatures during Memorial Day, with highs
  in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- Strong upper level wave will bring daily precipitation chances
  Tuesday through the end of the week, with Wednesday and
  Thursday carrying the best chance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday
indicates southwest KS is near the interface of weak shortwave
ridging building over the southern plains and stronger zonal flow
atop the northern and central plains. At the surface, a broad lee
cyclone spread out from central Saskatchewan, Canada, southward
through eastern NM is resulting in southwesterly winds across
southwest KS. With the building shortwave ridge and downsloping
winds, afternoon temperatures today will increase dramatically
compared to yesterday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. 12Z
HREF is also suggesting afternoon thunderstorms may develop around
20-21Z along a weak surface trough that will be near our far
northwest zones. While deep-layer wind shear is forecast to be weak,
steep mid-level lapse rates may engender a marginal severe hail and
wind gust risk with the strongest cells as they drift slowly east-
southeast. That said, nearly negligible convergence along the
boundary and no upper support casts doubt convection will initiate.
Any thunderstorms that do form will decay rapidly as the boundary
layer stabilizes after sunset, and the rest of the evening and
overnight period will be quiet with lows dropping into the 50s to
low 60s.

Daytime Monday, short range ensembles agree the upper level pattern
will amplify somewhat as the shortwave ridge above the southern
plains continues to build downstream of a strong trough approaching
the Pacific Northwest. Under persistent subsidence and southerly
winds, afternoon highs throughout our CWA will tick up a few degrees
into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Another round of afternoon
thunderstorms is possible favoring our western zones, however most
HREF members keep all activity confined to eastern CO.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree
the strong upper trough will dig southeast into the Intermountain
West by Wednesday night, and move little through the end of the work
week. The end product of this synoptic pattern for our area will be
above normal temperatures and near daily precipitation chances, with
ensembles suggesting the best chance existing Wednesday and Thursday
as NBM probability of QPF greater than or equal to 0.1" in the 30-
50% range for much of southwest KS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Southerly
winds will follow their typical diurnal trend, staying elevated in
the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts through sunset, weakening
to light and variable overnight, then increasing once again by
mid-morning tomorrow. Additionally, weak thunderstorms may
impact GCK/HYS in the next couple hours, however confidence in
direct terminal impact was insufficient to include in the TAFs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer