Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

796
FXUS63 KDDC 191600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday with hot afternoon
  temperatures.

- Limited thunderstorm coverage will be limited to northern
  zones Saturday afternoon/night, where a few may produce strong
  to marginally severe wind gusts.

- Improved chances for thunderstorms are expected to return
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A stray thundershower is meandering out to the east of the
forecast area. Beyond that, the morning is expected to be quiet
as temperatures race up towards the triple digits. Ensembles
have most of the CWA at a 25% chance or better for 100 degree
highs with much higher chances in the eastern and southern
portion of the CWA. By the evening, some storms are forecast to
develop along the center of the CO/KS border. It is expected
that the storms will move primarily eastward and only impact the
northern counties north of highway 96. While the majority of
the thunderstorm potential is expected to be sub-severe, if the
storms can organize a stray 60 mph wind gust can not be ruled
out. Ensembles only have a 25% chance for much of the northern
zones, likely depicting the expected scattered mode of the
thunderstorm development. Current RAP mesoanalysis still has a
primarily zonal flow aloft. The lack of upper-level dynamical
support will help minimize any severe risk for Saturday.

The Saturday forecast is indicative of the weather stretch
ahead. Hot temperatures and mostly dry weather with the
occasional storm that can not be ruled out. Sunday`s forecast
has highs up to 103 in the far southeastern counties. CAMs have
weak storms developing and moving out of the southeastern corner
of Colorado before dissipating. A lack of shear (<25 KTs in
NAMNST forecast soundings) and upper-level support will fight
against the storms organizing resulting in a near zero severe
threat. Sunday may end up being the warmest day of the stretch,
but the next few days will be similar in temperature.

Monday is forecast to be a degree or two cooler than Sunday, but
still hot enough to warrant heat precautions. Ensembles only
have around a 25% chance for precipitation and it is contained
to the far western and northern portions of the CWA. Like the
rest of the storms it is not expected to be severe, but strong
wind gusts are possible with the most organized storms.

Wednesday has a better chance for storms out west with ensembles
being as excited as a 50% chance. Enough uncertainty and
dependence on the days prior to monitor these chances with a
decent likelihood of changes. The rest of the period is expected
to be the same. Highs in the 90s and potentially the low 100s
with rain chances out west that is too uncertain to speculate
about.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Good flying weather is expected to prevail through this TAF
period, with a continuation of VFR/SKC. SW winds will gust
22-25 kts at all airports through sunset this evening, followed
by light winds overnight through 12z Sun. Thunderstorm potential
for this period will be low, with any activity confined to the
northern terminals (GCK/HYS). Even here, confidence was too low
for any direct convective impacts, so kept this set of TAFs dry
for now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner